Smoking among young people is a hot topic at the moment with the proposed Tobacco & Vapes Bill, which includes plans for a smoke-free generation, currently making its way through the legislative process.
However, a new study has revealed that no clear evidence that vaping acts as a gateway into smoking for young people. In fact, smoking rates in younger generations have proved to be in a continuous decline, and vaping is lauded as playing a crucial role in what could be the demise of traditional cigarettes.
Vaping is not a gateway to smoking
A systematic review funded by Cancer Research UK has evaluated the data from 123 studies from the US, Canada, and Western Europe involving over four million young people, to identify if vaping can lead to subsequent smoking in later life.
They concluded that there was no definitive evidence that vaping acts as a gateway into smoking, with some of the data finding that the increase in vaping has coincided with a decline in youth smoking rates. Reinforcing these findings, senior author and assistant professor of health policy and management at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, Jamie Hartmann-Boyce, said:
"If vaping was in a consistent and widespread way causing kids to start smoking, we would start seeing that in our population-level smoking data, and we haven't seen that at all.
It's difficult to argue that youth vaping is en masse causing kids to smoke. The data doesn't support that so far. Some evidence from our study possibly suggests the opposite—that vaping may contribute to declines in youth smoking."
While the researchers stress that ethical constraints and study design make the relationship between vaping and smoking difficult to determine, the link between the decrease in smoking rates and the entrance of vaping as a less harmful alternative to smoking has never been more important.
How vaping has contributed to the decline in smoking prevalence
Date from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) ‘Adult smoking habits in the UK: 2023’ report make it clear that there is a definite link between the decline of smoking rates across all age groups, and the increase in the use of vapes, indicating that vaping is a key factor in driving down UK smoking prevalence. In the last decade, as e-cigarettes have become widely available and data has shown that they are 95% less harmful than smoking, they have not only become the most popular smoking cessation tool but have also contributed to UK smoking rates dropping to their lowest ever at 11.9%.
Recent research conducted by YouGov found that vaping prevalence among young adults aged 18-27 is actually comparable to smoking prevalence especially among women, with 14% of women reporting they used a vape at least several times a month, and 10% of men. This compared to only 8% of women reporting smoking with the same frequency, and 10% of men. Unfortunately, this data does not reveal the current smoking status of those who use a vape, so we do not know if they are current smokers or ex-smokers. But we do know that in the UK the vast majority of vapers are either previous or current smokers, having used an e-cigarette to quit or reduce their tobacco consumption, with only 2.8% of the estimated 4.3 million e-cigarette users in the UK having never smoked.
60% of Gen Z have never tried cigarettes
The YouGov study looked at the social attitudes of young people, revealing just how starkly different their views of things like smoking and nicotine are from the generations before them.
Even before the introduction of any kind of smoking ban, only 3% of 18-27 year olds reported smoking regularly, with a whopping 60% saying they have never even tried cigarettes.
The research did uncover a disparity in tobacco smoking prevalence among this age group between men and women, with only 4% of women smoking at least once a week compared to 7% of men. However, even this is significantly lower compared to the national average for people who smoke at least once a week which sits at 11%, indicating that even low and infrequent use of cigarettes remains minimal among these young adults.
Not only is tobacco smoking among young adults declining year on year, but it is actually at its lowest since records began. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) released their report in October last year, revealing that in 2023 smoking prevalence in 18-24 year olds had dropped to 9.8%, the lowest ever recorded.
As the YouGov evidence shows, even since then smoking prevalence among this group have continued to decline rapidly, especially when you consider that in 2011 when the Annual Population Survey (APS) first started recording smoking prevalence the number of 18-24 year old smokers was 25.7%.
There are several reasons for smoking prevalence being so low among young people in the UK, including a better understanding and education of the consequences of smoking, the introduction of effective alternatives like vaping, and an overall different outlook on wellness and health compared to earlier generations.
Why is this data important for young people?
One of the crucial takeaways from this data is the consequences it suggests for those who are currently under the age of 18. It suggests that more and more young people are avoiding cigarettes entirely, and very few of those who do experiment with cigarettes move on to become regular smokers.
Data from the separate ONS report ‘Smoking, Drinking and Drug Use among Young People in England, 2023’ highlighted that school aged children who report as being regular smokers has remained at 1% since 2021, with those who classify as occasional smokers remaining a 2%. These young people, aged 11-15 are the ones set to be affected should the Government’s proposed generational smoking ban be implemented, suggesting that the hopes for a smoke-free generation could actually be a realistic goal for the near future.
What is the generational smoking ban?
A big part of the Tobacco & Vapes Bill, which has just concluded the committee stage of the legislative process, is the proposed new law often referred to as the generation smoking ban.
This would increase the legal age of sale for tobacco products by one year every year, meaning that children turning 15 this year and all those younger will never legally be able to purchase tobacco products. This would eventually lead to the first smoke-free generation.
The main driving factor behind this ban, which will be the first of its kind in the world should it come to pass, is the idea of ‘stopping the start.’ Current statistics suggest that over two thirds of those who try one cigarette will go on to become daily smokers.
The vast majority of current smokers first started before the age of 18, as evidenced by data from the General Lifestyle Survey of adult smokers, which found that 80% first started before the age of twenty, with two thirds starting before the age of 18. This is a time in our lives when we are not only more susceptible to addictive habits, but the social pressures around us are more likely to influence our decisions. For example, young people who grow up in households where others smoke are four times more likely to become smokers themselves.
Estimates from the Government suggest that raising the smoking age could make smoking among 14-30 year olds virtually non-existent by 2050, saving tens of thousands of lives thanks to the prevention of smoking-related illness and disease like lung cancer and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.
With the combination of a possible smoke-free generation, and the continued decline in smoking prevalence among older generations thanks to less harmful alternatives like vaping, we can only hope to see smoking rates continue to drop in years to come, and to see the demise of cigarette use altogether.
If you are considering a stop smoking attempt and want to find out how vaping could help, take a look at our guide to making the switch or head in to your local Evapo store to speak to a member of our team.
At a glance
- A new study has found no definitive evidence that vaping leads to subsequent smoking in later years for young people
- Gen Z smoking rates are at their lowest ever, with 60% having never even tried a cigarette
- Vaping is a crucial tool in the decline of smoking prevalence in the UK across all age groups
Sources
onlinelibrary.wiley.com 30/01/2025
medicalxpress.com 10/02/2025
ons.gov.uk 01/10/2024
gov.uk 29/09/2022
thetimes.com 12/02/2025
digital.nhs.uk 17/10/2024
gov.uk 13/11/2024
gov.uk 08/11/2023
ash.org.uk 03/2024
healthmedia.blog.gov.uk 15/04/2024
